HIGH ALERT NEEDED ! LEH MAY REPEAT
The event of complete washout in Leh has a message. Its first message is addressed to the Indian Scientific community. It is asking one big question as to what caused the rains in Leh. As per records and as per the geographic conditions there can not be a rain in Leh. Normally diffuse clouds reach this region and gradually freeze themselves to snow. This is an area where only snow falls. It is due to this that a different type of culture and cult developed in the area. As much as the Himalaya is concerned,it is well known that it is a sedimentary structure therefore can not hold big structures and the land will be unstable. If at all the people of the region prefer to be counted and listed among the Europeans and decide to earn and live by American style and European way of tourism ,forgetting thousands year old established way of life,perhaps the fate will be the same as it has happened today. In short , I would like to say that the people of the area have given a challenge to the NATURE which has only recoiled. This will be explained below.
The second question is an open challenge to the scientific capability of the Indian Scientists. It is an open challenge to their ability to foresee and plan the disasters likely to ARISE DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING HABITS AND MEDDLING WITH THE NATURE which they have apparently failed to do which I did several years before but it was not taken note .
Before tendering a scientific explanation for what has been witnessed and also warning for what is in the wait,I want to relate my experience of trying to share scientific observations with the then Minister for Scienbce and Technology ,about five years back. I had goen to New Delhi where discussing the phenomenon of heat exchange and convection currents that is affecting the atmospheric behaviour resulting into the rapidly changing pattern of monsoon marked by deficient rains in the gangetic plains but simultaneous heavy rains and land slides accompanied by cloud bursts in heights, suggestion came to meet Mr.Kapil Sibbal who was then the Honourable Minister for Science and Technology for this country.
During my visit to Mr.Sibbal,I tried to give some reasons which could apparently explain the disturbed weather pattern and also made some suggestions to start deep studies in the field of ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND Physics of CONDENSATION and HEAT BALANCE. The immediate response of Mr.Sibbal was that of a typical complacent government employee that scientists in the meteorology department and oceanography are at work and things are in control. With my background of research, where I welcome every comment and examine every aspect of failure, I never expected such a complacent reply from a responsible government dignitary and had to tell him in very clear terms that
" THE AREA OF INDO-GANGETIC PLAIN THAT IS AREA STARTING FROM WESTERN BENGAL,JHARKHAND,BIHAR,U.P, UP TO PUNJAB WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DRY AND HIMALAYAN STATES WOULD CONTINUE GETTING POURING RAIN WHAT MAY BE CALLED CLOUD BURST LEADING TO MASSIVE LANDSLIDES AND FURTHER CHINA AND ADJOINING REGIONS WILL KEEP GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE NON CONDENSATION OF CLOUDS THAT ARE SUPPOSED TO PRECIPITATE IN THE NORTH OF DECCAN PLATEAU UP TO THE FOOT OF HIMALAYAS."
I warned him to be ready to witness FLOODS WITHOUT RAINS IN THE STATES OF U.P.,BIHAR ETC. which is no matter of surprise today.
I also told him in no unclear terms that this state of affairs will continue for many years to come. It is more than five years now that the situation remains the same. On my return to Varanasi,media persons met me and wanted to know my comments on the climatic vagaries which was the same as given to Mr.Sibbal which was published immediately by the media. The cuttings of the same is still with me and the truth of the story before the readers.
However,it is not my intention to create a scare but to simply interpret the atmospheric behaviour. The rise in the temperature of Himalayan region and that of the indo gangetic plains has created a total dis balance. The amount of precipitation that is due for the plains, on account of high temperature and adverse atmospheric chemistry is escaping the plains and heading towards himalayas and bringing sudden and rapid rains and rapid cloud movements. It is noteworthy that in Leh region people have reported of thunder and then rains.This is highly unfortunate. Leh is a place where clouds loose all momentum and start freezing so no thunder is possible.Yet such happenings need to be scientifically interpreted and way out to be searched so that people can survive. Unfortunately in this shirt note,not much analysis of the phenomenon is possible,but it suffices to say that what occurred has a very realistic scientific explanation and competent people can find out a way out.
Few words of caution is necessary that within a fortnight once again a stream of clouds will move and there is every possibility of a Leh repeat at many places in the upper Himalayas and Kashmir which needs people to be on guard and perhaps this would be a better disaster management compared to the prescriptions of the management guys of New Delhi.
Dr.P.S.Dube
Ex Technical Officer,B.H.U,.I.T &
Ex Director
Varanasi College of Pharmacy
S.8/520,police Lines,Varanasi-221002
Mobile:09235790604,09919831371,0542-2500153,0542-2623447
No comments:
Post a Comment